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The narcissistic CEO

There was a piece in the Journal a few days ago the difference between people who are mildly optimistic and wildly overoptimistic. The former tend to save more, avoid debt, work more hours, stay married longer and get remarried sooner. The latter tend to go into debt, avoid paying bills, gamble, day-trade and rarely look beyond tomorrow.

It’s like the difference between social drinkers and alcoholics: a little optimism is good for you, but a lot is deadly.

The reason this struck a chord was a paper I read a few days ago called It’s All About Me: Narcissistic CEOs and Their Effects on Company Strategy and Performance. Narcissists have grandiose views of themselves. When the narcissist is also a CEO, he (it’s always a he) surrounds himself with submissive employees at best and sycophants at worst.

Politics tends to attract narcissists too. That’s one thing that impressed me about Marc Andresson’s account of Barack Obama. Not a narcissist. A regular guy.

Is he still, or has adulation has taken its toll?

My Black Wife

She doesn’t look blackish. In fact, she’s a blond. Her maternal grandparents emigrated from Sweden, where she still has a passel of second cousins.

But it turns out that her grandmother, Jane Helm of Drake, Missouri, was passing all her life. And she carried the secret to her deathbed.

Suddenly it all made sense. The face powder. The parasol. The elbow-length gloves. The high-necked dresses. It wasn’t Victorian formality carried into the 20th century. It was covering up dark skin, plain and simple.
The evidence of Jane’s ancestry comes from two sources: Census records and a mitochondrial DNA test.

Jane Helm had a brother - my wife’s great-uncle. Born April 4, 1893. Strangled by the umbilical cord. The mother’s “nativity” is Negro. The son’s race is black.

We don’t have the birth certificate for Jane. But we know that the mtDNA test, which traces ancestry through the mother’s line, lists L-type haplogroups, which are typical of West Africa, Ethiopia and Mozambique.

Jane Helm’s father came from Switzerland to America, bought a farm in rural Missouri after the Civil War and married a black woman. I imagine that only a foreigner would have done it. Southern Missouri is still the South, even today.

The ironic part is that Jane’s living children, even after seeing the mtDNA results and the Census records, won’t accept her heritage. They talk about the “Mohawk” in the family - a phrase that Southerners tell me is a codeword.

Why Chuck Schumer Loves Hedge Funds

Republicans represent rich people in poor states.

Democrats represent the rich states - and they look out for everyone from hedge fund managers to the urban poor.

Just ask Chuck Schumer.

Reduced to a stereotype

What comes to mind when you think of the Democratic presidential candidates? Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd haven’t been pegged yet, as far as I know. But here’s my list for the rest:

  • Edwards’s $400 haircut and 28,000 square foot home
  • Obama’s palmed cigarette
  • Biden’s plagiarism
  • Kucinich’s UFO sighting
  • There are so many possibilities for Hillary that it’s difficult to choose. Go way back to commodity trading (when I realized that I could never trust her) or recently, when she learned to move her mouth without saying anything.

I’ll say one thing for Hillary: She’s managed to cloud the air so much that it’s next to impossible impossible to reduce her to a single word or phrase.

I’ll do the Republicans next.

Chris Dodd, blowhard

From Will Fitzgerald’s blog at the NY Times: The number of words spoken at the last Democratic ebate correlates precisely with each candidate’s poll numbers. Hillary is on top (25% of the words) and Joe Biden at the bottom (7% of the words).

The exception is Chris Dodd, who talked himself within shouting distance of John Edwards despite being stuck at half a percent in the latest Zogby poll.

How Rich People Vote

From Statistical Modeling and Social Science: Rich people in red states tend to vote Republican. But in blue states there’s no strong link between income and party affiliation. The well-off are no more likely than anyone else to embrace the elephant.
This blog is an aspirational read for me, since the statistics are usually over my head. But when these guys - Gelman, Yajima and the Slovenian hunk Jakulin - get hold of real data, it’s always interesting.

The Joy of Commenting

Popular bloggers may disable the comment function or delete the missives of their attackers. Not me. I feel like a kid so starved for attention that he’s grateful for any notice, no matter how negative. And the surprising thing is - for someone as thin-skinned as I imagine myself to be - that there’s a lot to agree with, even among those critical of the “memories of Obama” post.

To Peter, who said “I read envy in the whole article!”: You’re not the first person to say that.

To KL Moore, aka Voice of Reason: I hope you got all the anger out of your system. Sincerely, Cool White Guy.

To Knemon: Maybe not everyone used drugs. But I’ll bet every presidential candidate - OK, maybe not Guiliani - has gotten high. Barack is the only one with the guts to admit it.

To Ksun: You’re right - race shouldn’t matter. But we all know that it does. Race has a lot to do with what we hear and how we judge it. And a guy like Obama - with one foot in Kansas and the other in Kenya - can say things to both blacks and whites without being accused of racism. Even if he does embellish his resume.

Finally to all the Business International people who commented: Thanks. I remember all of you fondly. Let’s get together on LinkedIn when Jeanne Reynolds sets up the Business International alumni group.

My 15 minutes

Today the New York Times quoted from my blog on my memories of Barack Obama. Suddenly I’ve got more traffic - and comments - than in the previous five years.

The Times reporter, Janny Scott, talked to me for an hour or so about six weeks ago. I was already familiar with her work from previous articles, notably the one on Barack’s failed Congressional bid in 2000. This time, though, she seemed to fall flat: The article was dull and inconclusive (”Memories Differ”) and the editors buried it in the Metro section.

It wasn’t for lack of trying. Janny kept coming back to the drug question. Here’s something I like about Barack: He’s very open about the fact that he did inhale. No parsing, no half-denials. He did it - like everyone else - and it’s no big deal.

The question is how much he did it and when he stopped. And all I can conclude us the Ms. Scott came up empty. Because she sure asked the question enough.

That’s her job. And that’s why the story is in the Metro section, not on the front page.

The Conquest of New Spain

The Conquest of New Spain (Penguin Classics)

Lately I’ve been reading books that were on my father’s bookshelf when I was growing up. One category he enjoyed was first-person historical narratives.

Bernal Diaz’s The Conquest of New Spain is the story of how Cortez and 400 soldiers fought and bluffed their way into the command center of Mexico, where they took Montezuma hostage and had their way with the empire.

It’s a bit like The Mouse That Roared, the bestseller and Peter Sellers movie from the 1960s. One of the greatest empires in the world comes to believe a few rowboats of musket-wielding soldiers also carries a secret weapon that can destroy civilization.

So they do the logical thing: they surrender. Nobody is more surprised than the soldiers themselves, who had already resigned themselves to having their hearts ripped out on stone altars.

Cortez had more enemies than George Bush. His patron in Cuba. Jealous officials in Spain. Every tribe he came across. (They were afraid of Cortez, but they feared Montezuma’s Apocalypto-style violence even more.) And his own soldiers, of course, who saw themselves hopelessly outnumbered and being led to gruesome deaths.

Cortez used a mix of threats, appeals and promises to barely hold together the expedition as he collected gold, planted crosses and took hostages.

Diaz underplays the Gods-from-the-Sun angle. The Mexicans knew the soldiers could be killed like other men. It’s never clear why Montezuma invited the soldiers across the bridges and into Tenochtitlan. Or how the Spaniards were able to walk away and return to Cuba safely.

Suppose the Mexicans had captured Cortez and his men (as they easily could have done)? Suppose they had taken the cannons and firearms and horses, forced the Spaniards to explain them, and built a defensive force of their own? What if they had been able to pull together an alliance with other tribes against the Europeans? Could they have held out another 100 years?

There’s an alternative history waiting to be written: The Defense of the Mexican Empire.

Things My Girlfriend and I Argue About

Painfully, stomach-clutchingly funny. From a place we’ve all been.

The sad thing that a mainstream newspaper tried to steal it from the author - and then threatened to sue him for complaining.

Death of the Page View

As sites are increasingly built with Ajax and Flash, page views stop making sense as a metric. When all of the navigation occurs within a single URL, the use of page views severely undercounts traffic.

“Ajax shatters the metaphor of a web ‘page’ upon which much of web publishing and advertising is based,” [says TechWeb’s Fredric Paul]…Ajax reduces the need for an entire webpage to reload to show fresh data: “It questions the assumptions of why do I have to do a page refresh to do anything,” according to Adaptive Path’s Lane Becker.

“If sites track traffic and sell ads based on pageview impressions, everything changes when users start interacting with the site and making multiple changes without ever refreshing a page. Does all of that count as a single page view? Or do we need to count clicks, or use a stopwatch to time how long they spend on each ‘page’?” Paul writes.

Same problem with RSS, but worse: Half of the time I don’t even go to the site I’m reading.

And, as Steve Rubel points out, there’s a big community of advertising agencies and content creators with a vested interest in the page view measure.

I see trouble on the way.

If I Only Had a Gun

Yesterday my son was late to school and hadn’t eaten breakfast. I tell him to walk ahead while I run into the Dunkin’ Donuts on 105th Street to buy him a bagel. About a half-second ahead of me into the door is a middle-aged, unshaven guy in a porkpie hat who blocks my way as he slowly shuffles up the the counter and says:

“Hey, sweetheart, will you be my girlfriend?”

“No.”

“C’mon, I be sweet to you, baby.”

“What can I get for you, sir?”

“I buy a coffee if you give me a kiss.”

I guess that sexual harassment course is only required for people who work. It was clearly going to take this guy a long time to buy a cup of coffee. And I needed to get the bagel and catch up with my son before school started.

People started to line up behind me. We all waited while he continued to hassle the countergirl, got his coffee, slowly counted out change and shuffled away.

What bugs me is not the “hey baby” piece - it’s the pokiness at the front of the line while others stand and fidget. You know it’s coming when a customer:

  • reads her three-year-old twins all of the 27 ice cream flavors and leaves it up to them to decide
  • starts to argue about why he should be able to buy beer with his WIC coupon
  • slowly takes out a coin purse and digs around in it, squinting at every quarter, nickel and penny
  • asks “Do you take checks?”

I used to experience this kind of thing in the South, when every transaction at the Piggly Wiggly included a personal conversation too. At the time it was annoying, but also charming (since I was usually on vacation at the time).

After 25 years in Manhattan, it’s not charming anymore.

Taxonomy Recapitulates Folksonomy

Back when I worked at the Globecon Group - a personality-driven boutique that trained wholesale bankers - one of my jobs was to come up with keywords for the thousands of books, articles and PowerPoints that comprised our library of training material.

Some people didn’t like the keywords I chose; they wanted new ones that made more sense to them. “Can’t have that,” I thought. I used the power of the sysadmin to guard those keywords like a paranoid dictator, leading to even more dysfunction in a company that was already pretty screwy.

That’s why I was so interested to read Tagging vs. Cataloging - What It’s All About by the lovely Chiara Fox, who looks like Winona Ryder without the anorexia. Chiara describes the difference between taxonomies - collections of keyword pick-lists like the Library of Congress Subject Headings - and folksonomies, such as the tags assigned by users of Flickr or Del.icio.us.

Librarians have traditionally lived in a controlled world filled with the ultimate of “keyword pick-lists”: the Library of Congress Subject Headings, the Medical Subject Headings (MESH) or even the Dewey Decimal System. A cataloger looks at an item to be cataloged, determines its “aboutness” and then finds the word (or words) from the list of accepted subject headings that best describes it.

These keyword pick-lists aren’t perfect, nor are they all-inclusive. But they do help control the terms that are used to describe items, which, as any cataloger worth her salt will tell you, is of the utmost importance. Without a way to account for the ambiguities of language and meaning, there is chaos. Terms and values must be controlled in order for the system to maintain a high level of recall and precision in results. This is something that every cataloger is taught in library school.

Tagging, on the other hand, is a bottom-up, wisdom-of-crowds approach with no standardization whatsoever (though the auto-suggest and type-ahead features of Del.icio.us can elicit some order). And this lack of standardization is one of the biggest criticisms of tagging.

Take the classificiation problem I faced with Globecon’s teaching material, for instance. Almost every piece of content in the system could easily be tagged “corporate finance” - whether the subject was bonds, valuation, yield calculations or even commercial lending. When all content has the same tag, the tag becomes useless. That’s what I was trying to avoid by coming up with a controlled set of keywords.

In any case, I can’t wait for Chiara’s next essay, where she promises to tell us about “the dark side of tagging.”

The Ancient Tail

The Long Tail was just released this month. It seems like it has been out forever. The seminal article in Wired appeared almost two years ago. The ideas have been publicized almost daily on Chris Anderson’s blog. And yet the book is well worth reading: Gladwell-esque in its energy and clarity, with details that haven’t appeared elsewhere.

One thing bugs me, though. Let’s see the data. We all know what a power-law curve looks like. What we need is to see a power-law curve mapped against the data. Otherwise it’s just a theory.

Journalism 2.0

The Washington Post’s Adrian Holovaty on web programming as journalism:

The way I see it, there are three basic tasks that journalists do:

1. Gathering information. This involves talking to sources, examining documents, taking photographs, etc. It’s reporting.

2. Distilling information. This involves applying editorial judgment to decide what parts of the gathered information are important and relevant.

3. Presenting information. This involves shaping the distilled information into a format that is accessible to the readership. Some examples: writing style (inverted pyramid, etc.), photo color-correction, newspaper page design.

“Doing journalism through computer programming” is just a different way of accomplishing these goals.

What Holvaty does is more than journalism via programming, though. Holvaty’s sites, like ChicagoCrime.org and the U.S. Congress Votes Database, are interactive presentations that enable readers to explore data and form their own opinions. Holvaty respects and empowers his readers rather than selecting facts to prove a preconceived point.

The article’s at the Online Journalism Review at USC - a source I intend to go back to.

Wikipedia’s Bad Cops

Last night I learned about the capricious and nasty treatment that Neil Gunton, who runs the CrazyGuyonaBike touring site, received at the hands of a Wikipedia administrator. CrazyGuyonaBike is a six-year open-source labor of love built by Neil for the bicycle touring community. It’s got trip journals, discussion boards, touring partners, equipment tips - everything a real or armchair tourer could want.

But apparently it’s not good enough to be listed as a resource in Wikipedia’s bike touring entry. Administrator Guy Chapman, aka “Just zis Guy, you know?”, not only removed the link to Neil’s site, but also poured on the vitriol, calling the site “spam riddled” and and justifying his actions by saying “I don’t recall ever having heard of it before.” If he thinks a couple of Google Adwords are spam, and he’s a bike tourer who doesn’t already know about Neil’s selfless advocacy for the touring community, that says more about him - and his lack of qualifications for editing an article on bicycle touring - than Neil’s wonderful site.

Is this guy typical of the Wiki cops? For Wikipedia’s sake, I hope not.

Rules for Parking in Manhattan

My wife and I don’t own a car anymore. But we’re still hunters at heart - always sensitive to the signs of movement that indicate spaces are opening up. The purposefully striding pedestrian reaching for keys; the sound of doors slamming; the changing of doormen’s shifts. Here are the rules that we’ve come up with after 20 years of parking in Manhattan.

Your Block

1. Park only on your block. All other blocks are unsafe.

2. If cars are circling the block, wait until a neigbor comes by. Never give your spot to a stranger. Strangers can’t reciprocate.

Basic Etiquette

3. Don’t take two spots when one will do.

4. On the other hand, don’t assume that someone taking two spaces did it on purpose. It was probably one space when he originally parked there.

5. Double-parking is not the same as stopping in the middle of the street.

6. You can save a spot for someone else by standing in it - for about 60 seconds. If I swing around the block once and your friend hasn’t shown up, it’s mine.

Touching and Shoving

7. Touch parking is OK. That’s what bumpers are for. Taking off a side mirror is not OK.

8. No matter how small the space around your car, somebody will try to park in it. So don’t get hot and bothered when another car jams itself behind you.

9. In fact, you’re even allowed to push other parked cars forward or backward a few inches. As long as you’re bumper to bumper, that is; Lincoln Navigators shouldn’t push their bumpers against a Mini’s rear window.

10. The same goes for motorcycles: no pushing. On the other hand, it’s perfectly legitimate to pick up and move a motorcycle to create a spot.

11. Manhattan is a level playing field. Your Mercedes will be touched - and even shoved - by an ‘86 K-car. If you don’t like it, use a parking lot. When you park a $70,000 car on the street, whatever happens serves you right.

12. When a passerby shakes his head and tells you the spot is too small, ignore him. He’s a pedestrian; you’re a pro.

Alternate-Side Parking

13. Alternate-side parking starts and ends 30 minutes before the posted time.

14. Everyone knows the alternate-side parking practice of double-parking for 90 minutes so the street can be cleaned. If you find yourself parked in because you didn’t move your car in time, be a grown-up. Don’t lean on your horn. Look on the dash of the car parking you in for a phone number. Or talk to a doorman - he’ll know whose car it is. Wait. Relax. Take the bus.

15. Sometimes the street cleaner shows up late, before the end of the posted time but after everyone has already moved back to the empty side of the street. When this happens, each car pulls out to let the street cleaner pass, then moves back and takes the next space in front. This means that the person at the end of the street loses his spot. If it happens to you, be gracious. Swearing loudly does not earn you a spot. Or sympathy. Or the offer of a spot from your neighbors next time you need one.

16. Never forget your obscure religious holidays. Allah and the Virgin are your friends.

From Mother Earth News to SWAT in 9 Steps

Mag Network

Amazon’s “Customers who bought X also bought Y” function displays thousands of paths through hundreds of demographic niches of America’s magazines. You don’t need Amazon to tell you that readers of ‘Guns & Ammo’ are more likely to buy ‘Handguns’ than ‘PETA News.’ But what Amazon can tell you is which magazines Dale Gribble and Comic Book Guy have in common. The hub ‘zines - those that unite groups with little else in common - provide a glimpse into the subjects that draw us together as Americans.

Inspired by the polarized political book networks on Orgnet, the power of Perl and the help of Adi Agafitei, I spent some time spidering around Amazon and dropping the results into Pajek, a free data visualization program from Slovenia’s University of Ljubljana. The resulting networks show a handful of magazines that link us all - families and singles, women and men, liberals and conservatives, teens and boomers, Hummer-drivers and tree-huggers…you get the idea.

The network above shows all of the shortest paths from ‘Mother Earth News’ to ‘Special Weapons Assault Team: The Magazine for Prepared Americans.’ The hub is ‘Popular Mechanics’, which I spent hours studying as a teenager. Men who read Popular Mechanics love their home workshops, and what is ‘Family Handyman’ but ‘Mother Earth News’ without the green baggage? Men who read ‘Popular Mechanics’ also like to hunt, fish and tinker with cars. From hunting it’s not a big step to ‘Guns and Ammo’, and from there it’s only a tiny step to assault weapon porn.

Popular Mechanics is a huge hub among men’s magazines. But it’s not the biggest. That distinction goes to Wired. More later.

Edgar Bronfman’s CV

From Slashdot:

“Fortunately for all you Americans, I believe this jackass was born in Canada which would disqualify him from running for president.

“Unfortunately for us Canadians, his being a jackass makes him perfectly qualified for running Canada.”

According to Slate, Edgar Jr. has been designated Hollywood’s official idiot.

Black People’s Names

Why is it that only black people are called Jordan? Michael Jordan, Barbara Jordan, Vernon Jordan. And why is it that only white people are called Rockefeller, Rothschild, and DuPont?

Baby Killing Is Legal

Now that the Dutch have adopted rules for euthanizing babies, I hope they’ll apply them sensibly. It’s so annoying when those babies start crying in the airplane cabin. You can’t exactly get up and leave the room. I also don’t like it when two-year-olds sit in the handicapped seats on the subway. They claim that they can’t read the sign, but I don’t buy that for a minute.

Harakiri Schoolgirls

Andrew Lee writes in the Financial Times that the misogynistic mix of cuteness, violence and perversion prevalent in manga and anime “…must send many tourists running, their ‘Fujiyama’ image of Japan tainted for life.”

Andy, I’ve got news for you: After seeing a reproduction of Makoto Aida’s “Harakiri Schoolgirls” (detail below), I’m ready start my own Japanese poster collection.

Schoolgirls

Barack Obama Embellishes His Resume

Barack ObamaDon’t get me wrong - I’m a big fan of Barack Obama, the Illinois freshman senator and hot young Democratic Party star. But after reading his autobiography, I have to say that Barack engages in some serious exaggeration when he describes a job that he held in the mid-1980s.I know because I sat down the hall from him, in the same department, and worked closely with his boss. I can’t say I was particularly close to Barack - he was reserved and distant towards all of his co-workers - but I was probably as close to him as anyone. I certainly know what he did there, and it bears only a loose resemblance to what he wrote in his book.

Here’s Barack’s account:

Eventually a consulting house to multinational corporations agreed to hire me as a research assistant. Like a spy behind enemy lines, I arrived every day at my mid-Manhattan office and sat at my computer terminal, checking the Reuters machine that blinked bright emerald messages from across the globe. As far as I could tell I was the only black man in the company, a source of shame for me but a source of considerable pride for the company’s secretarial pool.

First, it wasn’t a consulting house; it was a small company that published newsletters on international business. Like most newsletter publishers, it was a bit of a sweatshop. I’m sure we all wished that we were high-priced consultants to multinational corporations. But we also enjoyed coming in at ten, wearing jeans to work, flirting with our co-workers, partying when we stayed late, and bonding over the low salaries and heavy workload.

Barack worked on one of the company’s reference publications. Each month customers got a new set of pages on business conditions in a particular country, punched to fit into a three-ring binder. Barack’s job was to get copy from the country correspondents and edit it so that it fit into a standard outline. There was probably some research involved as well, since correspondents usually don’t send exactly what you ask for, and you can’t always decipher their copy. But essentially the job was copyediting.

It’s also not true that Barack was the only black man in the company. He was the only black professional man. Fred was an African-American who worked in the mailroom with his son. My boss and I used to join them on Friday afternoons to drink beer behind the stacks of office supplies. That’s not the kind of thing that Barack would do. Like I said, he was somewhat aloof.

…as the months passed, I felt the idea of becoming an organizer slipping away from me. The company promoted me to the position of financial writer. I had my own office, my own secretary; money in the bank. Sometimes, coming out of an interview with Japanese financiers or German bond traders, I would catch my reflection in the elevator doors—see myself in a suit and tie, a briefcase in my hand—and for a split second I would imagine myself as a captain of industry, barking out orders, closing the deal, before I remembered who it was that I had told myself I wanted to be and felt pangs of guilt for my lack of resolve.

If Barack was promoted, his new job responsibilities were more of the same - rewriting other people’s copy. As far as I know, he always had a small office, and the idea that he had a secretary is laughable. Only the company president had a secretary. Barack never left the office, never wore a tie, and had neither reason nor opportunity to interview Japanese financiers or German bond traders.

Then one day, as I sat down at my computer to write an article on interest-rate swaps, something unexpected happened. Auma called. I had never met this half sister; we had written only intermittently. …[several pages on his suffering half-sister] …a few months after Auma called, I turned in my resignation at the consulting firm and began looking in earnest for an organizing job.

What Barack means here is that he got copy from a correspondent who didn’t understand interest rate swaps, and he was trying to make sense out of it.

All of Barack’s embellishment serves a larger narrative purpose: to retell the story of the Christ’s temptation. The young, idealistic, would-be community organizer gets a nice suit, joins a consulting house, starts hanging out with investment bankers, and barely escapes moving into the big mansion with the white folks. Luckily, an angel calls, awakens his conscience, and helps him choose instead to fight for the people.

Like I said, I’m a fan. His famous keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention moved me to tears. The Democrats - not to mention America - need a mixed-race spokesperson who can connect to both urban blacks and rural whites, who has the credibility to challenge the status quo on issues ranging from misogynistic rap to unfair school funding.

And yet I’m disappointed. Barack’s story may be true, but many of the facts are not. His larger narrative purpose requires him to embellish his role. I don’t buy it. Just as I can’t be inspired by Steve Jobs now that I know how dishonest he is, I can’t listen uncritically to Barack Obama now that I know he’s willing to bend the facts to his purpose.

Once, when I applied for a marketing job at a big accounting firm, my then-supervisor called HR to say that I had exaggerated something on my resume. I didn’t agree, but I also didn’t get the job. But when Barack Obama invents facts in a book ranked No. 8 on the NY Times nonfiction list, it not only fails to be noticed but it helps elevate him into the national political pantheon.

The Pope and Creative Accounting

A letter to the FT depicts the medieval Christian church as an early regulator rooting out creative accounting practices:

The medieval Christian view was highly sympathetic to risk capital formation. The key was the word “risk”. What was objectionable to the medieval mind (and Mohammed confirmed that this was far from exclusively a Christian view) was the receipt of a return independent of the success or otherwise of the enterprise being financed. This was seen as exploitative and an offence against charity.

Aquinas elaborated this by arguing that, unlike, say, land, which you could own and farm yourself or own and let somebody else farm for a rent, the use of money was inseparable from its ownership. Money had no inherent value; it was merely a token. To charge interest was therefore to charge for something that did not and could not exist - the use of money separated from its possession.

Medieval society had a burgeoning commercial class. “Creative accountants” were regularly coming up with schemes for making interest look like something else and Church courts were constantly rejecting them, with the same mixture of weariness and zeal that Gordon Brown brings to his battle against tax avoidance.

Looking Out for No. 2

For the past few months I’ve been teaching myself to write spiders - little Perl programs that crunch through URLs and download data. In the spirit of learning by doing, my first project was to grab 5,000 health inspection reports for Manhattan restaurants from the NYC Department of Health website.

The reports list a lot of yucky things, from spoiled food to rat droppings, that you’d rather not know. I’ll tell you one thing, though - after going through this exercise, I’ll never buy the cheap sushi at Daikichi again.

Here’s a narrow slice of what I found: the average number of violations per restaurant for Manhattan chains with five or more locations. Most of the violations aren’t too bad. But unless you like raw sewage, stay away from the Popeyes on Fulton Street.

Over 2 Violations per Location
Café Metro
Ray’s Pizza
Sbarro’s

1.5 to 2 Violations per Location
Andrews Coffee Shop
Blimpie
Burger Heaven
City Market Café
Cosi
Daikichi Sushi
Europa Cafe
Kennedy Fried Chicken
Le Pain Quotidien
Pronto Pizza
Ranch 1
Teriyaki Boy
TGI Friday’s
Zaro’s Bread Basket

1 to 1.5 Violations per Location
Au Bon Pain
Baluchi’s
Barnes & Noble Cafe
Burritoville
Chipotle Mexican Grill
City Perk
Cremalita
Crown Fried Chicken
Domino’s Pizza
Jackson Hole
Popeye’s
Subway
Tasti D-Lite
Zaro’s Bread Basket

0.5 to 1 Violations per Location
Burger King
Dean & Deluca
Dunkin Donuts
Haagen Dazs
Hale & Hearty Soups
KFC
Krispy Kreme
McDonald’s
Pret a Manger
Starbucks
Wendy’s

Less Than 0.5 Violations per Location
Ben & Jerry’s

A few observations:

It’s easy to despise the big fast food chains, but when it comes to cleanliness, they seem to have their act together. Just compare Burger King to Burger Heaven or KFC to Kennedy Fried Chicken. (Subway doesn’t count - it’s a network of franchisees rather than a centrally managed operation like McDonalds.)

Pizza - or any restaurant where food is left out for long periods - is a bad bet.

Violations aren’t likely at chains where the food arrives in sealed containers and doesn’t need to be prepared before serving. The prime examples are ice cream shops like Haagen Dazs and Ben & Jerry’s. Coffee and baked goods (Starbucks, Dunkin’ Donuts, Dean & Deluca’s) seem to be relatively safe as well.

Trust-Based Networks Among the LDS

I’ve written about fraud among the Mormons before. Here’s another angle, from a social networking thread on Slashdot:

Salt Lake City is the smallest city to have its own SEC office, and the state suffers from a high rate for people getting ripped off by people they know. This has been attributed by the close network of people within the LDS Church. Somebody who is intent on ripping someone off can join the church and instantly gain a large web of trust.

Goofus, Gallant, Rashomon

Rashomon retold for fans of Goofus and Gallant.

Science Versus Entertainment

Interesting conversation on Slashdot about Hollywood Math and Science Consulting, which helps screenwriters portray math and science accurately in their scripts.

The company’s first client was the TV show Numb3rs, about a mathematician who solves crimes via pattern-recognition techniques. It’s a fascinating idea, and I love the eccentric professor played by Dragonslayer’s Peter MacNicol. Unfortunately, he’s a secondary character and can’t carry the show on his own.

Slashdot’s comment-ranking filter allows you to screen out idiots and read only responses that are authoritative, clever, imaginative or funny. So what were the highlights of this conversation on math and science in Hollywood? To summarize:

1. The laws of science are always secondary to the laws of entertainment.

2. Any show that realistically portrayed science and math would be pretty dull.

3. Therefore, no matter what the topic - forensics, technology, you name it - experts will always be horrified by the way it’s treated in Hollywood.

My favorite comment:

“[I read] a Garfield I saw where he ate an entire cake! No cat could eat that much! He’d get sick! Oh, I wish they’d hire some consultants for that horrible Jim Davis.”

TIAA on the Slippery Slope

I’ve held investments through both TIAA-CREF and Merrill Lynch, and I can’t imagine two more different companies. TIAA-CREF has always been like a big old family-run business - cheap, paternalistic and a bit backwards, but also old-fashioned in its commitment to the educators who comprise its customers. In contrast, Merrill Lynch - like many full-service brokers - seems like an oversized boiler room preying on unsophisticated (often elderly) investors.

That’s why I was disturbed when the former COO of Merrill, Herb Allison, was brought on as CEO a few years back after John Biggs left on his quixotic quest to keep the accounting firms honest. It’s not as if the company didn’t need a shake-up. But it has historically been a nonprofit (at least until losing its tax-free status after a run-in with Tom DeLay in the late 1990s). Its non-profit status allowed it to hold down costs for investors and to pay a relative pittance to the former academics who came aboard to work as CEOs.

All that ended when Allison came. He negotiated “base salary” of $1 million per year, but it’s actually $8 million when you count a $3 million bonus within months of signing on and guaranteed $4 million in long-term compensation (not to mention a $24 million severance agreement). Allison immediately started firing long-time employees, bringing in high-paid Wall Street managers and spending heavily on branches and advertising. None of which is likely to comfort the academics who make up the bulk of TIAA-CREF’s clientele.

Then, last year, two TIAA trustees were forced to resign after a business relationship with TIAA’s auditor came to light. Interestingly, these two trustees also happened to be the ones who brought in Allison, and who were his main supporters on the board.

Maybe TIAA will die a lingering death if it doesn’t change. Maybe it will become even more obscure than it already is. But does America really need another full-service broker and funds supermarket? I don’t think so - especially when the ground that TIAA-CREF covets is already dominated by better known, more experienced companies like Vanguard, Fidelity and T. Rowe Price.

Measure Teamwork, Not Glory

You may be a great performer on your own. But how much do you help your team? The metric de jour of the NBA - the plus-minus statistic - goes beyond so-called “glory statistics” like points or rebounds to measure a player’s total contribution to victory.

Refined by Dan Rosenbaum, an economist at UNC Greensboro, plus-minus measures how many additional points a team scores when a given player is on the floor. In Measuring How NBA Players Help Their Teams Win, he says that plus-minus statistics measure “how point differentials change when a particular player is in the game versus when he is not.” Subtracting individual points scored from the point differential isolates the contribution due to teamwork.

For instance, the threat of a three-point shooter may cause the other team to spread its defense and allow someone else to score. Nobody gets credit for a three-point shot, since it didn’t happen. But the plus-minus statistic should capture the extra points made possible by the mere threat of the three-pointer.

We reward glory in sports, business and life. We tend not to measure teamwork, which is less tangible and harder to capture. What’s the plus-minus of a company’s marketing department? Of its legal counsel? Hard to answer, but worth asking.

Spreadsheet Hell

PWC and KPMG say that 90-95% of business spreadsheets have errors, that each error costs a business $10,000 to $100,000, and that complex spreadsheets (more than 100 columns or rows) have a probability of error approaching 100%.

Gee, do you think the folks at PWC or KPMG know anyone who might be able to audit my company’s spreadsheets?

Therapy for Writers

Forty-three ways to cure writer’s block.

Hedging Liquidity Risk

Also from the recent PRMIA meeting on liquidity risk:

Ken Winston, CRO of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, threw out the following idea on how to hedge against market illiquidity: sell off-the-run Treasuries and buy on-the-run issues. As liquidity disappears, the on-the-run bonds gain relative to the off-the-run issues.

You could offer the hedge to a customer, adding leverage to ensure that your position better tracks the relative price declines of securities less liquid than off-the-run Treasuries, and keeping a bit for yourself to cover the basis risk and make a profit.

Asked whether he would purchase such a hedge for MSIM, Winston said “Sure, under the right circumstances.”

Sounds like the old TED spread (T-bills against LIBOR) in new clothes.

The Myth of Junk Bond Contagion

Went to the liquidity risk discussion at PRMIA’s New York chapter a few months back, shortly before GM was downgraded to junk status. I had meant to write about it at the time, but computer problems and the hassles of moving from Blogger to Moveable Type and then WordPress interfered. In hindsight, though, here’s what I found interesting:

1. Everyone in the room knew that GM was about to be downgraded.

2. One of the speakers said that his firm had surveyed pension managers and hadn’t found a single fund with hard limits on non-investment-grade bond holdings. Therefore, he believed that fears of a selloff triggered by a GM downgrade were overblown.

Which makes me wonder: Why did articles posing this scenario continue to appear up to and through the actual downgrade? It’s as if the press was unable to see beyond the disaster narrative.

Skeletal Jimmy Madison

The Body Mass Index of presidents is the subject of a chart in Sunday’s New York Times. (Unfortunately, only the accompanying article is available online.) The article points out that BMI is meaningless by itself. Our 6-foot 194-pound president, who regularly runs 6:30 miles at the age of 58, has a BMI of 26.3 - putting him in the 65% of Americans deemed overweight by the National Institutes of Health.

More interesting to me was the historical chart, which ranks presidents in order of their BMIs. Lowest is Madison at 5 foot 4 and 99 pounds, with a BMI of 17 - emaciated even by the standards of Kenyan distance runners. Teddy Roosevelt would have been considered obese (30.2) by today’s standards, and Taft - who got stuck in the White House bathub - was morbidly obese (42.3).

Of course, the use 0f BMI-based cutoffs assumes some universal ideal, independent of time, race, gender. With presidents we don’t have to worry about the gender or race parts - all are men and almost all English, Scotch or Scotch-Irish.

But time is another story. Don Troiani, the famous Civil War artist, says he seeks out models with a lean and hungry look. Very few people were overweight in those days (something the casting director of Cold Mountain apparently didn’t know). If you look at the earlier presidents, they were pretty thin. And surprisingly long-lived despite the medical shortcomings of the age, if you leave out alcoholism (Pierce), cholera (Polk), and weight problems (Taft and Arthur).

Don’t Lend to Doomsday Sects

A small Utah-based lender, the Bank of Ephraim, collapsed after discovering that 90% of its loan portfolio consisted of loans to a doomsday sect of fundamentalist Mormons.

Sect members, believing that the end of the world was imminent, took an oath several years ago to drain the bank of money before doomsday. They borrowed $18 million to start watermelon farms with no watermelons, motels that collapsed as soon as they were built, and other transparently phoney business ventures.

State regulators discovered the scam as part of a crackdown on Mormons who still practice polygamy. Wouldn’t want to scare away the tourists, would we?

Words That Say You’re a Loser

LoanPerformance, which sells retail credit analytics to mortgage lenders, says text mining can boost the accuracy of default models. If a customer uses any of these words when talking to a call center rep, the software flags the customer as more likely to default:

Rental
Renter
Rent
Roommate
Hazard
Debris
Fraud
Death
Marital Problem, Divorce
Mold
Sad
Jail
Motorcycle

If I were a sad divorced guy riding a motorcycle to a moldy jail, I’d probably default too. But I sure wouldn’t talk to a customer rep about it.

Autism: The Guy Disease

Follow this link to try the Autism Quotient test. After taking it, I’m ready to believe that autism is just a special case of being a guy.

The average score is 16.5, and 80% of those diagnosed with autism scored 32 or more. Your score appears to depend mainly on (1) your comfort in social situations and (2) your feelings about numbers, categories and patterns.

Personally, I find license plates fascinating and parties terrifying - and my score was 30. My wife is the opposite, and hers was 6. I’ll bet this chasm is typical. Not only is it men who hail from Mars, but it’s also men who build model airplanes, become mathematicians, write software, play the Blackberry… So it should not be surprising that 10 times as many males as females are diagnosed as autistic.

My Perfect Job

OK, not really, because it’s all about golf. But just listen to the rest.

The job title is Data Analyst, but it could also be called Database Journalist. The PGA wants someone to mine and analyze data from ShotLink (the PGA scoring system) to “create a depth of analysis, insight and entertaining information never before possible in golf.” Since links on Craiglist disappear in 10 days, I’ll quote directly from the ad:

The golf industry is at the start of a tidal wave of data analysis, and can evolve like baseball, where data, statistics and insights fuel the fan interest and are core to the sport. This person’s primary responsibility is to create interesting output and insight for PGATOUR.COM that will help strategically differentiate the Site from its competitors.

PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITIES:

• Directly analyze ShotLink data and create compelling outputs specifically for PGATOUR.COM on a regular and frequent schedule

• Coordinate the structuring of analysis of ShotLink data to create interesting, compelling, meaningful and entertaining outputs for fans. Consider construct for both repeatable and customized outputs

• Take a unique perspective on analysis of data. Express a natural curiosity to delve into the data and find insights that have never before been possible

• Structure and perform complex analysis. Do so creatively and without fully built out information system tools and query systems

• Create clear, concise and entertaining presentation of potentially complex information and analysis. Creativity required for compelling presentation of outputs

• Support other PGATOUR.COM statistics based projects (e.g. Fantasy, archives, player profiles)

• Support editorial and newsletter development. Tie analysis to supporting modular information, stories and articles

Bill James, eat your heart out.

The listing is on CraigsList, by the way, where a year or so ago I found some interesting temporary work in might be called “spreadsheet journalism.” Here’s one of the articles that resulted. (To see the analytical part, you’ll have to view the PDF or download the Excel file - which unfortunately requires registering.)

Visualize Your Writing Style

I just love PlasticBag.org. Like Andrew Sullivan (before he went bonkers), but techie and profane. In this post, Tom Coates creates visualizations of his last five years of posts, showing, for example, how his writing style deteriorated as posts become longer and less frequent. There’s also a reference to a Perl module that calculates Flesch-Kincaid.

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